The White House has announced approval of the EPA’s endangerment finding for CO2 emissions from aviation. Reducing CO2 emissions from aviation are unlikely to have any measurable effect on global warming. The Hill announcement of OMB’s approval of the EPA’s aviation endangerment finding on GHG emissions from aviation. So, how much global warming do we get from commercial aviation? It’s hard to find an answer. When I search for a number can find a tap dance on particulate from contrails, increased forcing and other nasty things, but not X°C. I did find a 2009 article in Nature suggesting 8% to surface temperature or 0.03-0.06°C since 1850. Not much per year, but then we weren’t doing much flying in 1850.
In 2013, the estimated CO2 from all commercial aviation was 705 million metric tonnes. At 0.0000000000015°C/tonne that’s 0.001°C. The EPA estimated 114.4 Tg of CO2 equivalent from commercial aviation. That’s 114.4 million tonnes, or 0.00017°C contribution to global warming. Since any rule making will only reduce GHG’s from U. S. aviation by a fraction. So, the whole thing is all for show, everyone doing his part and the shoulder-to-shoulder push for propaganda. The regulations will make aviation more expensive.
As a wise man once said, more and more regulations about less and less.
If anyone has a different number for global warming for a tonne of CO2, let me know. I doubt it will bring this into a measurable change.